The Politics of Pot: Marijuana Exerts Election-Year Pull on Young Voters
1 day ago
Dude. Whether the pro-marijuana initiatives on four state ballots pass or go up in smoke Tuesday, pot as a sticky political issue isn't going away, as progressives hope to use it to lure young people to the polls in 2012 and beyond.
Residents of Arizona, Oregon, and South Dakota will consider medical marijuana measures with varying legal implications, and Californians will vote on a proposition that would fulfill reggae legend Peter Tosh's wish and legalize weed outright.
Supporters of all four initiatives have suffered this year from being underfunded and overshadowed by bigger election year headlines such as the economy, health care, immigration and, of course, the tea party.
Polls in each of those states show voters leaning against relaxing marijuana laws or, at most, on the fence. But when it comes to issues such as this, it's always hard to tell whether poll respondents are honest about their feelings, according to Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg.
"There's the issue of social desirability. People might be less likely to admit to pollsters their positions on marijuana," Greenberg said, pointing out that automated polls show more support for pot initiatives than surveys that employ live poll takers.
While medical marijuana, and pot in general, can be controversial, it's not a left-right issue in the way that, say, same-sex marriage is. Liberals are traditionally pro-pot, but there are also plenty of conservatives who see relaxed drug laws as a way towards less government intrusion.
"It has the benefit of not being particularly polarizing in the way other social issues are," Greenberg said. "If you look at independents, for example, they lean towards Democrats on the issue. But there are plenty of Republicans who come at it from a libertarian point of view and they support it too."
If there's one group that's a key demographic for marijuana advocates, it's the youth vote. Young people, for the most part, are okay with pot. There's little stigma surrounding it, as there is with harder drugs. If a twenty-something doesn't smoke it, he or she probably knows someone who does. It's prevalent in mainstream movies like "Pineapple Express," a common sight (or scent) at rock and hip-hop concerts and generally indistinguishable from alcohol in the minds of those under 30, and maybe under 40 too.
And because young voters tend to lean liberal, progressive strategists will be crunching the numbers this year to see how they can position marijuana initiatives in future election cycles to boost support for their candidates. Their logic: use pot to get young voters to the polls and once they're there, hopefully they'll pull the lever for a Democrat.
National political strategist Doug Hattaway points to a recent Newsweek survey that found 64 percent of all young voters are more likely to vote if marijuana's on the ballot.
"Those are hard numbers to ignore if you're a Democratic operative looking to get young people out," Hattaway said.
Residents of Arizona, Oregon, and South Dakota will consider medical marijuana measures with varying legal implications, and Californians will vote on a proposition that would fulfill reggae legend Peter Tosh's wish and legalize weed outright.
Supporters of all four initiatives have suffered this year from being underfunded and overshadowed by bigger election year headlines such as the economy, health care, immigration and, of course, the tea party.
Polls in each of those states show voters leaning against relaxing marijuana laws or, at most, on the fence. But when it comes to issues such as this, it's always hard to tell whether poll respondents are honest about their feelings, according to Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg.
"There's the issue of social desirability. People might be less likely to admit to pollsters their positions on marijuana," Greenberg said, pointing out that automated polls show more support for pot initiatives than surveys that employ live poll takers.While medical marijuana, and pot in general, can be controversial, it's not a left-right issue in the way that, say, same-sex marriage is. Liberals are traditionally pro-pot, but there are also plenty of conservatives who see relaxed drug laws as a way towards less government intrusion.
"It has the benefit of not being particularly polarizing in the way other social issues are," Greenberg said. "If you look at independents, for example, they lean towards Democrats on the issue. But there are plenty of Republicans who come at it from a libertarian point of view and they support it too."
If there's one group that's a key demographic for marijuana advocates, it's the youth vote. Young people, for the most part, are okay with pot. There's little stigma surrounding it, as there is with harder drugs. If a twenty-something doesn't smoke it, he or she probably knows someone who does. It's prevalent in mainstream movies like "Pineapple Express," a common sight (or scent) at rock and hip-hop concerts and generally indistinguishable from alcohol in the minds of those under 30, and maybe under 40 too.
And because young voters tend to lean liberal, progressive strategists will be crunching the numbers this year to see how they can position marijuana initiatives in future election cycles to boost support for their candidates. Their logic: use pot to get young voters to the polls and once they're there, hopefully they'll pull the lever for a Democrat.
National political strategist Doug Hattaway points to a recent Newsweek survey that found 64 percent of all young voters are more likely to vote if marijuana's on the ballot.
"Those are hard numbers to ignore if you're a Democratic operative looking to get young people out," Hattaway said.
A similar poll in Oregon, which has already legalized medical marijuana, showed a pot-related initiative motivates more young people to vote than the race for governor. Nearly one-third (31 percent) of voters said they were more likely to head to the polls after learning that the pro-pot Measure 74 was on the ballot in 2010. Measure 74 would allow legal distribution through regulated dispensaries similar to those currently in California.
Because young people nationally aren't expected to vote in the large numbers they did for Barack Obama two years ago, analysts say 2010 could be a test case in preparation for a big pot push in 2012.
"Putting it on the ballot during a presidential election year is better anyway," Greenberg said. "You get more people in general out to vote, and that means more motivated people, and more young people."
For example, though pot is not on the ballot in Colorado, a survey found that if it were, 34 percent of residents would be more likely to vote. That kind of data means progressives will be eyeing the Centennial State as one of the next places to advocate for legal marijuana, Hattaway said.
This year all eyes are on California, where Proposition 19 would give the Golden State the nation's most lenient marijuana laws. The measure, drafted by Bay Area marijuana mogul Richard Lee, would allow adults over 21 to cultivate the crop for personal use and carry up to an ounce of it.
"That's where the research is being done, California. If the measure passes, there will be big lessons," Hattaway said. "It will be a guide for election strategy for other states in the future."
Because young people nationally aren't expected to vote in the large numbers they did for Barack Obama two years ago, analysts say 2010 could be a test case in preparation for a big pot push in 2012.
"Putting it on the ballot during a presidential election year is better anyway," Greenberg said. "You get more people in general out to vote, and that means more motivated people, and more young people."
For example, though pot is not on the ballot in Colorado, a survey found that if it were, 34 percent of residents would be more likely to vote. That kind of data means progressives will be eyeing the Centennial State as one of the next places to advocate for legal marijuana, Hattaway said.
This year all eyes are on California, where Proposition 19 would give the Golden State the nation's most lenient marijuana laws. The measure, drafted by Bay Area marijuana mogul Richard Lee, would allow adults over 21 to cultivate the crop for personal use and carry up to an ounce of it.
"That's where the research is being done, California. If the measure passes, there will be big lessons," Hattaway said. "It will be a guide for election strategy for other states in the future."
Tagged: 2010 Elections, arizona, california, marijuana, medical marijuana, oregon, prop 19, south dakota
The Politics of Pot: Marijuana Exerts Election-Year Pull on Young Voters
No comments:
Post a Comment