In the battle for control of the House, there are some places where the outlook is especially grim for Democrats. And then there are the Slaughterhouse Five.
They’re the five states in which Republicans aren’t in the hunt for just a seat or two but, rather, for many — enough to go a long way toward capturing the majority. If the Republicans ran the table in just these five states, it would take them most of the way toward control of the House.
Two states — New York and Pennsylvania — present scenarios that would have been unthinkable as recently as two years ago. In the Northeast, where the Republican species has gone all but extinct, there are as many as 10 Democratic-held seats within the GOP’s reach in New York and eight seats in play to varying degrees in Pennsylvania.
The three other states aren’t so target-rich. But in a chamber that boasts banana republiclike incumbent reelection rates that exceed 90 percent, the half-dozen Ohio districts in play and the four each in Florida and Arizona mark them as potential disaster areas for the Democratic Party, with greater concentrations of vulnerable members than nearly anywhere else on the map.
New York
Despite its status as a leading blue mega-state, thanks to self-funding candidates and outside spending, Republicans have some 10 seats in varying degrees of play — roughly a third of the state’s 29 seats.
The opportunities stretch from Long Island’s Suffolk County up to the state’s North Country bordering Canada, and they’re, in many cases, the seats the Democrats gained in the anti-war tide of 2006 and the anti-George Bush wave of 2008.
Most Democrats concede that one seat is already gone — the formerly GOP seat won last cycle by now-disgraced former Democratic Rep. Eric Massa.
Yet that still leaves an additional nine seats that are getting attention, including four that The Cook Political Report has labeled “tossups.” Few think the GOP will win all 10, but some Republican insiders are hoping for between five and eight, which would be a staggering number for any state and would more than double the current two-seat GOP delegation in New York.
Disgusted by a sour economy, high property taxes, budget cuts and two years of scandal from Albany’s two Democratic governors, a state comptroller and several state legislators, independents and moderate Democrats who normally only pull the party lever are suddenly giving Republicans a fresh look.
A few challenges have been late to surface. In two districts — that of long-serving Rep. Maurice Hinchey and first-termer Rep. Dan Maffei — a collection of conservative outside funders, including American Crossroads, has poured six-figure ad buys into those upstate seats, flooding the tiny TV markets with large buys and creating a clear sense of tightening races.
And public polls now show Rep. John Hall, who in 2006 was down almost 10 points in polls heading into the final weeks, in a dead heat with first-time candidate Nan Hayworth.
This cycle may well be a reversal of 2006, when Democrats made gains after several late-breaking challenges, even if not in the same seats.
“You’re going to see people winning this time that have no business winning,” said Republican strategist Nelson Warfield, who worked on Doug Hoffman’s two campaigns in the North Country-based 23rd District, a district held by Rep. Bill Owens that’s now among the tossups.
Another top race is in the 20th District, where Rep. Scott Murphy — whose seat once belonged to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, who won it in an ugly race with GOP Rep. John Sweeney in 2006 — is locked in a tight battle with Republican Chris Gibson, a military veteran.
Democrats insist privately that fewer than four seats are likely to flip — still a significant delegation overhaul. But many argue that some of the GOP candidates viewed as competitive won’t ultimately be that tough to fend off on Nov. 2 because of their business histories or first-time candidate mistakes.
Working against the GOP are several factors, including the two-week-long public messiness of the Carl Paladino campaign at the top of the ticket, which some campaign insiders said was starting to show up in their candidates’ polling.
“I think all politics is local, and the national races are local in that sense,” said state GOP Chairman Ed Cox. “And that’ll be separated from the governor’s race.”
But there are those local factors, the biggest of which is the Democrats’ massive cash advantage in its coordinated campaign, as well as get-out-the-vote help from union operatives and others.
And some of the Democrats are stronger than they may seem. For instance, in the Staten Island-based 13th District, Republican Michael Grimm could be helped by turnout for Staten Island District Attorney Dan Donovan, currently the nominee for attorney general, but he is massively outgunned in money by incumbent Rep. Mike McMahon.
Pennsylvania
Democrats face a worst-case scenario of losing as many as eight seats in Pennsylvania, spread across the breadth of the state.
“They’re always going to be competitive districts,” said Larry Ceisler, a Democratic consultant, recalling a 2000 redistricting process that produced GOP-friendly districts across the state. “This doesn’t surprise me in the least.”
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has pulled its TV advertising in support of Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper, a freshman Democrat who faces an uphill reelection race. And two public polls conducted over the past month show Rep. Paul Kanjorski at about 40 percent — dangerous territory for an incumbent — and trailing GOP challenger Lou Barletta.
Democrats also face a difficult path to victory in the suburban Philadelphia-based 7th District, where the party is trying to hold the seat of Rep. Joe Sestak, who is running for the Senate. In addition to that open seat, Reps. Chris Carney, Patrick Murphy and Mark Critz face competitive races; Rep. Tim Holden needs to be vigilant in his Republican-leaning district, though he is thought to be in much better shape than his colleagues.
“This will be a really tough test,” said T.J. Rooney, a former Pennsylvania Democratic Party chairman who served in the state Legislature. “There’s no question that we occupy some very conservative districts.”
Rooney was quick to point out that many of the Democrats facing tough races — a list that includes Dahlkemper, Murphy and Carney — won conservative-minded seats in the more favorable election cycles of 2006 and 2008.
“If anybody thought we were going to replicate our success over the last couple of cycles, they were wrong,” said Rooney.
Ohio
The Democratic hurt spreads across the state as the party faces the very real prospect of seeing its gains over the past two cycles reversed and as many as six seats in jeopardy.
The DCCC has already pulled its advertising in support of Rep. Steve Driehaus and has yet to spend a dime of independent expenditures in support of Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy, who is facing a rematch against Republican Steve Stivers.
While Democratic campaign officials say they are increasingly confident Rep. Betty Sutton will hold on, Reps. Zack Space, John Boccieri and Charlie Wilson all face difficult reelection bids. Of late, the DCCC has rushed to the rescue of Wilson, a sophomore Democrat who occupies a GOP-leaning seat in southeastern Ohio.
Ohio Democratic Party Chairman Chris Redfern chalked up the party’s difficulties to a 2000 redistricting that left many of the districts favorable to Republicans.
“It’s real simple,” said Redfern. “If these districts had been drawn competitively, this wouldn’t be the case.”
Redfern conceded that Driehaus and Kilroy occupied seats that were particularly “tough.”
Florida
This is a state where Democrats could lose as many as four seats. Two freshmen — Reps. Suzanne Kosmas and Alan Grayson — occupy seats that are now ranked as Republican-leaning by The Cook Political Report. Second-term Rep. Ron Klein and veteran Rep. Allen Boyd are also in highly competitive races, with one recent public poll showing Boyd trailing by a significant margin.
“In a bad year, those are tough seats for Democrats,” said Tom Eldon, a Florida-based Democratic pollster, who noted that the party had spent a decade trying to oust GOP Rep. Clay Shaw from the 22nd District seat until Klein finally knocked him off in 2006.
The DCCC has canceled its planned TV ad blitz for Kosmas and has spent less than $200,000 in support of Boyd.
Arizona
As many as four Arizona Democrats are in serious danger, a prospect that would evaporate the party’s gains in the state over the past four years.
Obama’s dismal 40 percent Arizona approval rating isn’t helping, a number traced in part to the administration’s decision to sue the state over its controversial immigration law.
The DCCC has canceled its TV advertising time for Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, a freshman waging an uphill bid to retain a conservative-minded, northern Arizona-based seat. The DCCC, meanwhile, is dropping big bucks — more than $800,000 as of Monday afternoon — in an effort to protect sophomore Rep. Harry Mitchell in his difficult rematch against 2008 GOP foe David Schweikert.
Liberal groups are rushing to the aid of Rep. Raul Grijalva, the fourth-term liberal congressman who unexpectedly finds himself in a dogfight against Republican Ruth McClung after urging a boycott of the state over the immigration law. The labor-backed America’s Families First is dumping more than $260,000 in an effort to defend Grijalva.
Slightly better positioned to emerge victorious: Tucson-based Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, who, as of mid-October, held a nearly $1 million cash-on-hand lead over tea-party-backed Republican Jesse Kelly, who knocked off the GOP establishment favorite in the September primary.
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